David Berson, USA Today’s Economist of the Year, at PMI has released his latest research piece on the national housing market. Here are some key snippets and how they relate to Maui real estate.

Our models indicate that the decline in house prices is only about one-third to one-half over, due primarily to the magnitude of the supply/demand imbalance in the housing market. This assumes that the current neconomic downturn is both short and modest, and that the disarray in financial markets ends soon…The key reason for these national price declines is the worsening of the supply/demand imbalance in the housing market. The average price of a house, as with all goods and services, ultimately depends on demand and supply…

While none of this necessarily applies to Maui real estate specifically, it does impact the mindset of buyers who are considering buying. Let’s find some detailed data now.

Berson projects the percentage likelihood that following markets will see lower housing prices in two years.

• Riverside, Ca-93%
• Las Vegas-92%
• Sacramento-77%
• LA-77%
• San Diego-72%
• San Francisco-30%
• Seattle-4%
• Portland-9%

In other words, San Fransisco, Seattle and Portland have a high likelihood of increasing property values. Much of the risk remains isolateded to California and Florida. The question is, of course, what does this mean for Maui real estate? Well, Berson didn’t release Hawaii data, but it seems that visitors from the more difficult areas will be less likely to be buyers while the more robust markets will leave their owners in good moods as they come to Maui.